Predictions for 2024

My predictions on politics, economics, AI, etc in the ACX prediction contest

Each year I make some predictions about the next year, and score my predictions for last year, with inspiration from Scott Alexander, Vox's Future Perfect, Matt Yglesias, and others.

In this post I'll give my predictions and analysis for the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest on a range of prediction questions from politics, economics, science, tech, etc. (I’ll also do Vox’s predictions soon, and maybe some more sets of 2024 predictions later, but probably won’t have time.)

I made my predictions in two formats: First, I made "blind" predictions where I predicted without looking at other people's predictions, but could freely research the topic otherwise. I usually spent at most a few minutes each on research and analysis, so don't read too much into them. Second, I made "full" predictions after looking at other people's predictions on Manifold and elsewhere, e.g. from Zvi.

The predictions on Metaculus, where the prediction contest is hosted, are hidden until February, so I can't factor them into my predictions yet. The links below go to Manifold (because I already had those links and was lazy), but click through to Metaculus for the full question descriptions and many good comments. These are my predictions as of January 21. The Manifold probabilities are the average market price over the day January 21. (Also, here’s my predictions in spreadsheet format if you want to do some analysis with it.)

US Politics

Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?

The government is still passing stopgap funding measures for FY24, and will need to again avoid a shutdown in October at the beginning of FY25. Given that they've managed to pass 3 short-term funding bills, I predict they'll most likely keep successfully avoiding shutdown, but the House GOP majority has kept narrowing, progress is slow, and every time they near a funding deadline there's more threats of hardliners killing a deal.

Blind prediction: 30%

Manifold: 26%

My prediction: 32%

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Johnson is now in basically the same situation that McCarthy was, with the same Freedom Caucus Republicans threatening to oust him. But they haven't yet, even though Johnson has basically kept the same deal with the Democrats that McCarthy had made. I think a big difference is that many of those who ousted McCarthy really hated him, particularly Gaetz, and they don’t hate Johnson

Johnson is going to need to navigate through multiple more controversial deals on the shutdown, Ukraine, and probably the border. Some Democrats have said they'd save Mike Johnson as part of a deal on Ukraine and the border, which seems plausible but overall unlikely for all the pieces to work out. If Republicans lose control of the House in the elections, that also poses a danger to him, but it's more likely he'd just cease to be leader at the start of the next term. My initial prediction was 50%, but Manifold was at 75% and after thinking about it more I think that's about right.

Blind prediction: 50%

Manifold: 75%

My prediction: 75%

In 2024, will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?

Small chance Sotomayor or Kagan steps down so they get a Democrat-chosen replacement - let's say 3%. The rest of the probability is death or incapacity. Actuarial tables give 15% mortality, but we adjust down a lot for high socioeconomic status, so I'll put death+incapacity at 10%

Blind prediction: 7%

Manifold: 17%

My prediction: 13%

Will USA refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?

Looking at the historical chart, it hasn't happened since the 1990s, and for most of that time it hasn't been close. The Metaculus question has some context on the goal number of 125k and why it failed to happen last year - I expect the same for this year.

Blind prediction: 15%

Manifold: 15%

My prediction: 15%

Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?

This does not require legislation, or it would definitely not happen. It looks like the Biden administration wants it to happen and is working on it, and may want it to happen before the election, since legalization is popular. But I'll give a healthy amount of respect for inertia and rule changes taking a long time. Interestingly, Polymarket has this at 70% while Manifold has this at 50%.

Blind prediction: 70%

Manifold: 50%

My prediction: 65%

Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?

I think it's overwhelmingly likely to be Trump vs Biden. I think it'll be a narrow margin, but I give a slight edge to Biden - I predict the polls today make the situation look worse for Biden than they will look on Election day. People are unhappy about the economy, but recent consumer sentiment surveys have shown very rapid improvement, which is good for Biden, and I predict that trend is likely to continue.

Let's look at the prediction markets. Polymarket is at 48% for a Democrat winning the presidency. Election Betting Odds: 49% Dem. Manifold: 53% Dem. Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?: 50% Dem. So, all very tightly clustered around 50%.

Blind prediction: N/A - I've been following this closely so no blind prediction

My prediction: 53% Dem, 46% GOP, <1% everyone else

Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?

Two parts:

1) Will the general election be between Trump and Biden? I put it at about 90%, much higher than the markets - the markets have consistently priced a 15-20% chance that Biden drops out, which I think is crazy, and I've bet heavily against that. 

2) Will they debate? Trump has been skipping the primary debates but he says he wants to debate Biden, which makes sense because he only stood to lose from debating the other GOP candidates but will be on more even footing with Biden, and probably also hopes to take advantage of Biden's perceived old age and gaffe-proneness. There's still some chance either of them declines to debate, so I put that at 85%, conditional on the election being Trump vs Biden. (Trump could also lose the GOP nomination and run as an independent, in which case a debate is also likely)

Blind prediction: 77%

Manifold: 68%

My prediction: 78%

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?

The trials are going to take a long time - they are complex, with a lot of challenges (e.g. presidential immunity) that Trump can and has raised, and Trump's strategy is to drag them out as long as possible. But trial dates for the 4 criminal cases are already set for well before the elections and even with Trump trying to stall it's reasonably likely that at least one trial concludes before the election. Whenever the trials do conclude, he's very likely to be convicted on at least one.

Blind prediction: N/A - I saw predictions on this before I could make a blind prediction

Manifold: 47%

My prediction: 55%

Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?

Historical base rate is 14/58 = 24% of elections had any faithless elector; if we look at more recent elections from 1948 to 2020 it was 10/19 = 53%. Several states have recently tightened laws to prevent faithless electors, and in 2020 the Supreme Court ruled in Chiafalo that states could in fact enforce such laws, so we should adjust the base rates down. If Trump wins, I'll say 85% chance that there's faithless electors like in 2016. If Trump loses the general election, 35%. Each of those cases is ~50% likely. Manifold has this at 44%, which seems too low, I am buying it up.

Blind prediction: 60%

Manifold: 44%

My prediction: 60%

International Politics

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

Netanyahu is deeply unpopular now, over 75% of Israelis want him to step down. I believe the next election doesn't have to be held until 2026, but many want elections called and/or Netanyahu to step down after the war is over. I think the war is fairly likely to effectively end within a few months, and even in a longer-lasting low-level conflict there's a good chance Netanyahu wouldn't stay in power.

Blind prediction: 20%

Manifold: 46%

My prediction: 40%

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?

Risk of death: Actuarial table is ~10%, bump down a lot for access to the best healthcare (6%), bump up a little for health issues, likely prostate cancer (7%). Chance of stepping down or being deposed: maybe 2%. The conflict within Iran last year largely ended. If Iran gets into the Israel war then there's a slightly increased chance that he is deposed, but their involvement so far has been through Iranian proxies and I think it's very likely that continues.

Blind prediction: 9%

Manifold: 14%

My prediction: 10%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

I put a full-scale invasion in 2024 at ~2% - there's a substantial risk over the next decade but I don't think they are militarily ready for an invasion yet this year. 10 deaths is much more likely - it could happen inadvertently during the drills and prods that China regularly carries out near Taiwan. But from some quick research it seems it hasn't happened since the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1958, so base rates are low.

Blind prediction: 4%

Manifold: 7%

My prediction: 4%

Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?

Nuclear war is very unlikely, most of the probability here is from accidents, and a little from terrorist/non-state actors and small-scale nuclear conflict (tactical nuclear weapons). North Korea, Israel/Iran, India/Pakistan, and Russia/Ukraine are the top candidates, and all of them are very unlikely (<1%). Although Russia is the one most people worry about, I actually think it accounts for a small minority of the chance of this turning out as YES (though of course the scale of potential impact from Russia would be much higher).

Blind prediction: 2%

Manifold: 4%

My prediction: 2%

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

There's some risk at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, but I'd say substantially lower than last year - Metaculus had the same question at 5-15% last year.

Blind prediction: 4%

Manifold: 8%

My prediction: 4%

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?

The war has continued with little change in 2023, and Russia and Ukraine seem to be far apart on potential ceasefire negotiations. Ukraine will have a hard time giving up Crimea for both political and military reasons, and the same is true for Russia. International support for Ukraine in the war has been faltering, which I suspect increases the chances of a ceasefire slightly.

Blind prediction: 20%

Manifold: 9%

My prediction: 15%

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

Ukraine's counteroffensive is focused on other areas, not Bakhmut, which appears to have more PR value than strategic value. But fighting in the immediate vicinity of Bakhmut has continued, and Ukraine did take some ground around Bakhmut after Russia took Bakhmut itself.

Blind prediction: 30%

Manifold: 8%

My prediction: 10%

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

I know very little about this one so I'm mostly just aggregating other predictions with a little of my judgment

Blind prediction: None

Manifold: 13%

My prediction: 15%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?

Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts - Wikipedia shows a conflict killing at least 10 people is a common occurrence, I haven't carefully looked through the data but at a glance it looks like in the last 10 years 2020, 2019, 2016, 2013 probably would have counted.

Blind prediction: 30%

Manifold: 15%

My prediction: 20%

Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?

Claudia Sheimbaum is leading in the polls with a very large margin - 60% compared to 30% for the opposition candidate Gálvez. So I'll put her at 90%. Everyone else is a third party, and I haven't checked the historical stats but it sounds like they have essentially no chance, similar to in the US, so I'll give them 1% total, leaving 9% for Gálvez. It turns out this pretty much spot on matches the current market prices

Blind prediction: 90% Sheimbaum / 9% Gálvez / 1% other

Manifold: 90% Sheimbaum / 9% Gálvez / 1% other

My prediction: 90% Sheimbaum / 9% Gálvez / 1% other

AI

Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?

I authored a very similar prediction question for last year, and I can go into a lot of detail here. To win, the AI needs to be extremely good at coding and difficult math/CS problem solving tasks. So far, the best results here are from AlphaCode. AlphaCode 2 (2023) was able to reach around the 85th percentile, up from around 45th percentile for AlphaCode 1 (2022). That's promising, but the gap between 85th percentile and 99th is fairly large - I will not be surprised if we get there in a couple years, but it seems unlikely this year. But who knows, AI progress forecasts have a history of underestimating the rate of improvement (see Updates and Lessons from AI Forecasting).

Getting more into the weeds, an interesting note is that an AI could win codeforces by solving slightly fewer problems than the best humans, but doing so inhumanly fast (my version of the question was worded differently to avoid that). But that would still take a very good AI system; I believe the gap between an AI that can do that and an AI that can outright solve more problems than the best human is fairly small.

Blind prediction: 10%

Manifold: 10%

My prediction: 9%

Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?

We know so very little about what Q* is and whether it is anything important. I briefly glanced at OpenAI's publication history to get a sense of what they publish about. There's only 40 entries from 2021 through 2023, so I'm guessing the chances of a somewhat arbitrary specific thing being published aren't that high.

Blind prediction: 25%

Manifold: 22%

My prediction: 23%

Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?

This is roughly the same as whether Ilya remains at OpenAI for the year, and markets put that at 45%

Blind prediction: 40%

Manifold: 46%

My prediction: 43%

Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?

Introducing a bill is a very low bar, lots of bills are introduced that have no hope of going anywhere. The restrictions that qualify are also fairly broad. Manifold was at 77% and this seems about right to me.

Blind prediction: 40%

Manifold: 76%

My prediction: 75%

Health

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?

Base rates of withdrawal are very low. There's some chance that with the widely increased use last year, some new side effects are found, but they'd have to be extremely serious to withdraw approval

Blind prediction: 5%

Manifold: 4%

My prediction: 2%

Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?

Base rates are 7 times in the 19 years the system has existed. One commenter said if you model it as a Poisson distribution you get 31%, so that's my forecast.

Blind prediction: 31%

Manifold: 28%

My prediction: 31%

Space

Will SpaceX’s Starship reach orbit in 2024?

Starship's second orbital test got close to reaching the target (almost-orbital) trajectory, but note that would not meet the criteria for this question, because it was flown on an intentionally sub-orbital trajectory. I predict they will very likely succeed on that within a test or two, and they'll keep testing and fly an orbital trajectory. The cadence between tests will likely be shorter than the time between the first and second tests - they are already planning the third test in February. But there's a lot of possible delays that could happen.

Blind prediction: 80%

Manifold: 83%

My prediction: 80%

Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?

The question requires contact between the booster and the tower. I think it'll take a while yet. Manifold was at 28%, and historically predictors are too optimistic about SpaceX, so I'm going to go with 22%

Blind prediction: 30%

Manifold: 28%

My prediction: 22%

Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?

Based on one minute of research, they have a test flight planned, and I'd give that somewhere around a 50% chance of successfully reaching space

Blind prediction: 70%

Manifold: 42%

My prediction: 40%

Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?

In January, NASA announced they were delaying this mission to 2025, so the question has actually been removed from the contest.

Before the delay was announced, my thinking was: It's planned for November, but I think it's likely to be delayed. Artemis 1 was successful but Artemis 2 is way more complex and a lot of things need to go right for this to happen on time, so I'll predict 20% or so.

Of course, now it's not happening this year (<0.1%)

Economics

Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?

Musk has played hardball with his creditors many times, but going into bankruptcy seems like it would be pretty disastrous and he's unlikely to be forced into it this year. I would probably predict with more confidence (i.e. go lower) with some basic research into what Twitter’s finances looked like.

Blind prediction: 10%

Manifold: 8%

My prediction: 8%

Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?

Financial markets are basically efficient. Every time there's a question like this, I check the option prices, which appear to put this at ~40%, so that's my prediction. Note that BTC has gone down ~7% so far this year. Manifold was at 68% which I believe is completely irrational. I'm surprised I couldn't find any equivalent question on Polymarket.

Blind prediction: 40%

Manifold: 57%

My prediction: 40%

Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?

The financial markets spend a ton of money and effort forecasting this, but it's much harder to read off the probability from market prices. Also we're close enough to the 3% threshold that different measures of inflation could easily be above or below 3%, so have to be careful to distinguish people forecasting CPI vs core CPI vs PCE vs etc.

Blind prediction: 25%

Manifold: 38%

My prediction: 25%

Will the S&P go up over 2024?

Again, I would just read the option prices - I think it's about 60%, but you have to be careful because bid-ask spreads are wide and very noisy. Kalshi has a market from which we can read off ~72%. I'm going to go with that.

Blind prediction: 60%

Manifold: 76%

My prediction: 72%

Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?

It didn't happen last year, and now inflation is way down so it's much less likely this year. But recession chances this year are still ~35%

Blind prediction: 45%

Manifold: 49%

My prediction: 40%

Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?

Another option price question.

Blind prediction: 30%

Manifold: 50%

My prediction: 42%

Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?

This is, will the Fed make at least six 25 basis point cuts? The financial markets forecast this very well, and they say 47%

Blind prediction: 47%

Manifold: 40%

My prediction: 47%

Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the USA through November 2024?

Looks like it has been growing about 50% a year, and was at 9.8% in Dec 2023. I think growth rates are slowing, but not by that much. Note that the question is asking about the average for the months of Jan to Nov - some back of the envelope math shows the result would be ~12% if we have 50% growth rate, and would have to slow to 25% to be below 11%

Blind prediction: 80%

Manifold: 78%

My prediction: 80%

Vox predictions

Bonus update: I've also added my predictions on Vox’s 2024 predictions.